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This article talks about a popular exotic Fx structure named Target Redemption Forward (TARF). How it looks appealing and challenges it may pose. QuantArt’s Managing Director, Samir Lodha shares view on using exotic options appropriately to reduce risk but not to assume disproportionate risk.

Dive into the key highlights of the interim budget 2024, with focus on cutting down fiscal deficit, to 5.1%, affordable housing , capital expenditure and increase use of renewable energy.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 30-31, 2024, discussed current economic conditions, noting solid economic activity and moderated job gains while inflation remained above their 2 per cent objective. The Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 5¼ to 5½ per cent. It indicated that the members wanted to wait more to ensure that inflation is controlled before embarking on a rate cut cycle.

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On one hand, the UK faces recessionary pressures, with its economy contracting 0.3% in Q4 2023, worse than expected. On the other hand, despite this, the annual inflation rate remains steady at 4% in January 2024. High and persistent inflation complicates rate-cutting efforts to stimulate the economy. The GBP is ready for a sharp move. The question is, are you hedged appropriately? Are you poised to benefit from likely movements? What’s your risk management strategy?

The February 2024 Zinc Outlook Report suggests a complex market ahead. It predicts a near-term dip in China’s zinc output due to increased costs and environmental concerns, potentially supporting prices. Conversely, China’s stimulus measures hint at a demand recovery, influencing market surplus projections. Moreover, disruptions in global smelting operations could exert upward pressure on prices, despite a temporary bearish outlook due to the Chinese New Year and economic slowdown.

The “USDINR Outlook and Strategy” report of February 2024 dissects the intricate interplay between rate expectations and currency performance. It offers a deep dive into the hedging strategies essential for navigating the currency markets. The analysis details the impact of US monetary policy on the Indian Rupee and outlines potential paths for USDINR, considering various global and domestic economic scenarios.

The February 2024 Chinese Yuan Outlook indicates a poised economy with a 4.9% growth in Q3 2023, defying forecasts amidst a property slump. The People’s Bank of China holds the loan prime rate at 3.45%, fostering economic stability. However, the property crisis and trade headwinds persist, with expectations of a continued cautious monetary policy.

Power companies, irrespective of their reliance on renewable energy or coal, encounter foreign exchange risks. Coal-dependent firms frequently import coal, exposing them to exchange rate fluctuations every few months. Renewable energy companies also face this risk because they might import solar panels, or even if they buy them locally, their prices can be affected by currency changes.

The January 2024 USTRY Outlook focuses on Turkey’s economic resilience. With aggressive interest rate hikes to 45%, inflation remains a challenge. Growth is evident, yet manufacturing slows down. The report outlines Turkey’s measures to support the Lira and provides a hedge strategy for USD/TRY, indicating potential short-term pressure but medium-term positivity for the currency.

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QuantArt is committed to unlock the hidden values for our clients by optimizing risk and return. The Optimisation is done across asset classes such as Foreign Exchange, Interest Rate, Commodities, Bond, DCM, ECM, and Credit. We work across geographies with nuances of local markets while firmly tracking the Global Financial Market. Our vision is to continuously bridge the global financial market asymmetries through our domain knowledge, intelligence, insights, tools, software and technology and analysis and bring about assured risk-adjusted savings through optimization for corporates and institutions.

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Leadership Team

Samir Lodha

Managing Director

Samir Lodha founded QuantArt in 2012 January which has been running for the last 10 years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIMC) and has around 20 years of experience in Forex and Interest rate risk management. Prior to that, he had worked in senior positions with foreign exchange treasuries of JP Morgan (Executive Director), HSBC (Associate Director), and ICICI Bank wherein he advised large companies across India on risk management and hedging of foreign exchange and interest rates exposures.  He has significant experience in Fx and rate markets along with a sound experience and understanding of global markets, market economics, hedging strategies, hedge algorithms, price calculation, and risk-return optimization.

Srinivas Puni

Managing Partner

Srinivas Puni is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) with over 15 years of experience in structuring forex and interest rates derivatives. He has worked with banks like JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Yes Bank, and Axis Bank in the past. He conducts training on foreign exchange and risk management as well as advises specifically large clients. Srinivas has an in-depth understanding of the quantitative models behind derivative valuation and related CVA, DVA, FVA modeling. He specifically handles pricing, valuations, structuring, risk modeling etc

Vinod Garg

Managing Partner

Vinod is an MBA from IIM Lucknow with 20+ years of experience in treasuries in India and Hong Kong wherein he advised large companies and banks on risk management, markets, and hedging. Prior to joining QuantArt, he held the positions of Executive Director in Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas. Vinod has extensive skills in simplifying complex situations and convert the same into a hedge opportunity.

Sandip Basu

Managing Partner

Sandip is a post graduate from BITS Pilani with 25+ years of experience in global markets.  He began his banking career with SBI and thereafter held leadership position at treasury at American Express Bank, Deutsche Bank and ICICI Bank in India. He was an investment banker for 7 years covering areas including PE intermediation, debt syndication and FX advisory. Sandip was Chief Treasury for Tata Steel Group between 2014-2020, where he led a large team with distinction in hedging currency, interest rates and commodity, investment of surplus funds, retirals investment, working capital management, RBI regulations  etc.  

Leadership Team

Samir Lodha

Managing Director

Srinivas Puni

Managing Partner

Vinod Garg

Managing Partner

Sandip Basu

Managing Partner

Samir Lodha founded QuantArt in 2012 January which has been running for the last 10 years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIMC) and has around 20 years of experience in Forex and Interest rate risk management. Prior to that, he had worked in senior positions with foreign exchange treasuries of JP Morgan (Executive Director), HSBC (Associate Director), and ICICI Bank wherein he advised large companies across India on risk management and hedging of foreign exchange and interest rates exposures.  He has significant experience in Fx and rate markets along with a sound experience and understanding of global markets, market economics, hedging strategies, hedge algorithms, price calculation, and risk-return optimization.

Srinivas Puni is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) with over 15 years of experience in structuring forex and interest rates derivatives. He has worked with banks like JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Yes Bank, and Axis Bank in the past. He conducts training on foreign exchange and risk management as well as advises specifically large clients. Srinivas has an in-depth understanding of the quantitative models behind derivative valuation and related CVA, DVA, FVA modeling. He specifically handles pricing, valuations, structuring, risk modeling etc

Vinod is an MBA from IIM Lucknow with 20+ years of experience in treasuries in India and Hong Kong wherein he advised large companies and banks on risk management, markets, and hedging. Prior to joining QuantArt, he held the positions of Executive Director in Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas. Vinod has extensive skills in simplifying complex situations and convert the same into a hedge opportunity.

Sandip is a post graduate from BITS Pilani with 25+ years of experience in global markets.  He began his banking career with SBI and thereafter held leadership position at treasury at American Express Bank, Deutsche Bank and ICICI Bank in India. He was an investment banker for 7 years covering areas including PE intermediation, debt syndication and FX advisory. Sandip was Chief Treasury for Tata Steel Group between 2014-2020, where he led a large team with distinction in hedging currency, interest rates and commodity, investment of surplus funds, retirals investment, working capital management,RBI regulations  etc.  

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