Briefs

BOJ Ends the Worlds Last Negative interest rate Regime   »

After nearly a decade of unprecedented monetary easing, Japan is navigating a crucial turning point with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ending the era of negative interest rates.

The FOMC meeting held on March 20, 2024 went as expected, with interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% at and hawkish economic projections. The FOMC raised their year end PCE inflation estimate higher to 2.6% and also projected a higher growth and lower environment. The ‘dot plot’ indicated a similar rate cut expectations in 2024 as they were in the last meeting but moved the 2025 and 2026 rates higher. The Committee aims for maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, noting that risks are balancing and remains alert to inflation risks. 
 
Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained that inflation pressures will ease and reaffirmed that the Fed is on pace for rate cuts this year, and expressed comfort that the inflation is on the right track. . Powell also discussed plans to slow the pace of reducing the Fed’s bond holdings to ensure a smooth transition. Overall, the Fed remains cautious, monitoring inflation trends and economic indicators closely before making significant policy changes.

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The March 2024 Copper Outlook Report forecasts a 2.6% rise in global copper demand, driven by the green energy transition and anticipated US dollar weakening. With significant demand increases expected alongside the electrical, electronics and transportation sectors driven by rising semiconductor chips and EV usage, the market is set for growth. However, global copper supply is projected to tighten due to mining disruptions and output cuts, particularly in China, potentially leading to higher copper prices. Amidst this, the Fed’s future rate cuts signal further support for copper demand. The report advises buyers to accumulate at dips and sellers to sell at higher ranges, leveraging detailed hedging strategies to navigate the evolving market landscape.

Seeking insights into Turkey’s economic landscape? Dive into our comprehensive report for a detailed analysis of recent developments shaping the nation’s financial trajectory. From economic growth and monetary policy to foreign direct investment and exchange rate outlook, our report covers key topics impacting Turkey’s economy.

The “USDINR Outlook and Strategy” report of February 2024 dissects the intricate interplay between rate expectations and currency performance. It offers a deep dive into the hedging strategies essential for navigating the currency markets. The analysis details the impact of US monetary policy on the Indian Rupee and outlines potential paths for USDINR, considering various global and domestic economic scenarios.

As global iron ore demand slumps by 2.8%, falling to 2 billion tons due to China’s property sector crisis, prices are forecasted to waver between $85 and $115 per ton. Despite the gloom, India emerges as a beacon of growth, with demand projected to climb by 14%. The market anticipates a boost in supply by 3.8% to 2.6 billion tons in 2024, led by Australian and Brazilian mining expansions, potentially reshaping the global iron ore landscape.

The Egyptian economy grapples with significant challenges, including a devalued currency, rising debt concerns, and socio-economic stresses like poverty and unemployment. Inflation surged to 35.7% in February 2024, prompting the central bank to hike the key interest rate by 600 basis points to 27.25%. Despite these challenges, Egypt attracts global investment with high bond yields, bolstered by an $8 billion IMF loan and substantial international aid. The economy shows resilience in sectors like tourism and the Suez Canal, offering hope amidst adversity. The EGP’s outlook suggests stability, with expectations to move within the range of 46-49, indicating cautious optimism for Egypt’s financial future.

Japan’s economy showed modest expansion in Q4 2023 amidst challenges like an aging population, manufacturing decline, and economic stagnation. Inflation easing to 2.2% in January 2024 suggests potential shifts in monetary policy. Trade deficit narrowed, indicating positive trade dynamics, while domestic indicators like unemployment and retail sales show stability. However, challenges in government spending and housing persist, with the yen’s outlook remaining uncertain amid global economic conditions. The outlook for Japan’s economy includes cautious optimism with modest growth and stable inflation, yet faces potential shifts in monetary policy amidst global uncertainties. The yen’s future is poised between weakening trends due to dovish global policies and potential appreciation in times of global tension or crises, highlighting its sensitivity to international economic dynamics.

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Samir Lodha

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Samir Lodha founded QuantArt in 2012 January which has been running for the last 10 years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIMC) and has around 20 years of experience in Forex and Interest rate risk management. Prior to that, he had worked in senior positions with foreign exchange treasuries of JP Morgan (Executive Director), HSBC (Associate Director), and ICICI Bank wherein he advised large companies across India on risk management and hedging of foreign exchange and interest rates exposures.  He has significant experience in Fx and rate markets along with a sound experience and understanding of global markets, market economics, hedging strategies, hedge algorithms, price calculation, and risk-return optimization.

Srinivas Puni

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Srinivas Puni is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) with over 15 years of experience in structuring forex and interest rates derivatives. He has worked with banks like JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Yes Bank, and Axis Bank in the past. He conducts training on foreign exchange and risk management as well as advises specifically large clients. Srinivas has an in-depth understanding of the quantitative models behind derivative valuation and related CVA, DVA, FVA modeling. He specifically handles pricing, valuations, structuring, risk modeling etc

Vinod Garg

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Vinod is an MBA from IIM Lucknow with 20+ years of experience in treasuries in India and Hong Kong wherein he advised large companies and banks on risk management, markets, and hedging. Prior to joining QuantArt, he held the positions of Executive Director in Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas. Vinod has extensive skills in simplifying complex situations and convert the same into a hedge opportunity.

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Sandip is a post graduate from BITS Pilani with 25+ years of experience in global markets.  He began his banking career with SBI and thereafter held leadership position at treasury at American Express Bank, Deutsche Bank and ICICI Bank in India. He was an investment banker for 7 years covering areas including PE intermediation, debt syndication and FX advisory. Sandip was Chief Treasury for Tata Steel Group between 2014-2020, where he led a large team with distinction in hedging currency, interest rates and commodity, investment of surplus funds, retirals investment, working capital management, RBI regulations  etc.  

Leadership Team

Samir Lodha

Managing Director

Srinivas Puni

Managing Partner

Vinod Garg

Managing Partner

Sandip Basu

Managing Partner

Samir Lodha founded QuantArt in 2012 January which has been running for the last 10 years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIMC) and has around 20 years of experience in Forex and Interest rate risk management. Prior to that, he had worked in senior positions with foreign exchange treasuries of JP Morgan (Executive Director), HSBC (Associate Director), and ICICI Bank wherein he advised large companies across India on risk management and hedging of foreign exchange and interest rates exposures.  He has significant experience in Fx and rate markets along with a sound experience and understanding of global markets, market economics, hedging strategies, hedge algorithms, price calculation, and risk-return optimization.

Srinivas Puni is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) with over 15 years of experience in structuring forex and interest rates derivatives. He has worked with banks like JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Yes Bank, and Axis Bank in the past. He conducts training on foreign exchange and risk management as well as advises specifically large clients. Srinivas has an in-depth understanding of the quantitative models behind derivative valuation and related CVA, DVA, FVA modeling. He specifically handles pricing, valuations, structuring, risk modeling etc

Vinod is an MBA from IIM Lucknow with 20+ years of experience in treasuries in India and Hong Kong wherein he advised large companies and banks on risk management, markets, and hedging. Prior to joining QuantArt, he held the positions of Executive Director in Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas. Vinod has extensive skills in simplifying complex situations and convert the same into a hedge opportunity.

Sandip is a post graduate from BITS Pilani with 25+ years of experience in global markets.  He began his banking career with SBI and thereafter held leadership position at treasury at American Express Bank, Deutsche Bank and ICICI Bank in India. He was an investment banker for 7 years covering areas including PE intermediation, debt syndication and FX advisory. Sandip was Chief Treasury for Tata Steel Group between 2014-2020, where he led a large team with distinction in hedging currency, interest rates and commodity, investment of surplus funds, retirals investment, working capital management,RBI regulations  etc.  

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