After nearly a decade of unprecedented monetary easing, Japan is navigating a crucial turning point with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ending the era of negative interest rates.
The FOMC statement from June 12, 2024, indicates that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with strong job gains and low unemployment. Inflation has eased but remains elevated. The federal funds rate is maintained at 5.25-5.5%. Expectation of a rate cut has been reduced to one this year. The Committee is committed to achieving a 2% inflation target and will adjust monetary policy as needed based on incoming data.
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The USDINR report covers key factors affecting the currency pair, including global market liquidity, US inflation and interest rates, and the US 10-year yield, etc. Currently USDINR is trading at a range of 83.5-83.70 slowly pushing its range towards the upper side. Even after USD weakness INR did not appreciate recently due to weakness in CNY and JPY. RBI may let it hold the range a little longer but eventually it should go towards 84-85+ in the next 6-12 months.
The South African economy contracted by 0.1% in Q1 2024, with key sectors like manufacturing, mining, and construction facing significant declines. Inflation remains high at 5.2%, and the SARB has kept interest rates steady. Despite a rising market and improved FDI, unemployment is up, and housing remains sluggish. The ZAR has appreciated but may face depreciation due to underlying economic weaknesses.
Global aluminum demand is set to increase by 2.4% in 2024, reaching 99.22 million metric tons, driven by growth in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles (EVs), and the packaging industry. Despite the recovery in demand, supply remains robust with significant production increases in China and other regions. Near-term price outlook for LME aluminum is projected at $2400-$2800 per ton, with a medium-term range of $2700-$3100 per ton.
China’s economy grew 5.3% YoY in Q1 2024, exceeding expectations. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7, while the property sector continued to decline. The trade surplus widened, and the PBoC maintained a low interest rate of 3.45%. the Yuan may weaken towards 7.40-7.50 against the USD once the bank starts being more dovish to revive the economy.
South Korea’s economy grew by 1.3% QoQ in Q1 2024, driven by domestic demand. Inflation eased to 2.7% in May, prompting potential rate cuts by the BoK. The trade surplus widened to USD 8bn in June, but key sectors show signs of deceleration. KRW may appreciate in the short term towards 1350 amidst overall robust economic performance.
Japan’s GDP shrank by 0.5% QoQ in Q1 2024, and inflation increased to 2.8% in May. The trade deficit decreased, and exports grew significantly. The BoJ maintained low interest rates, but potential hikes are expected. The Yen remains weak, nearing a 38-year low, with possible government intervention if it surpasses key psychological levels of 165+.
Managing Director
Samir Lodha founded QuantArt in 2012 January which has been running for the last 10 years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIMC) and has around 20 years of experience in Forex and Interest rate risk management. Prior to that, he had worked in senior positions with foreign exchange treasuries of JP Morgan (Executive Director), HSBC (Associate Director), and ICICI Bank wherein he advised large companies across India on risk management and hedging of foreign exchange and interest rates exposures. He has significant experience in Fx and rate markets along with a sound experience and understanding of global markets, market economics, hedging strategies, hedge algorithms, price calculation, and risk-return optimization.
Managing Partner
Srinivas Puni is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) with over 15 years of experience in structuring forex and interest rates derivatives. He has worked with banks like JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Yes Bank, and Axis Bank in the past. He conducts training on foreign exchange and risk management as well as advises specifically large clients. Srinivas has an in-depth understanding of the quantitative models behind derivative valuation and related CVA, DVA, FVA modeling. He specifically handles pricing, valuations, structuring, risk modeling etc
Managing Partner
Vinod is an MBA from IIM Lucknow with 20+ years of experience in treasuries in India and Hong Kong wherein he advised large companies and banks on risk management, markets, and hedging. Prior to joining QuantArt, he held the positions of Executive Director in Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas. Vinod has extensive skills in simplifying complex situations and convert the same into a hedge opportunity.
Managing Partner
Sandip is a post graduate from BITS Pilani with 25+ years of experience in global markets. He began his banking career with SBI and thereafter held leadership position at treasury at American Express Bank, Deutsche Bank and ICICI Bank in India. He was an investment banker for 7 years covering areas including PE intermediation, debt syndication and FX advisory. Sandip was Chief Treasury for Tata Steel Group between 2014-2020, where he led a large team with distinction in hedging currency, interest rates and commodity, investment of surplus funds, retirals investment, working capital management, RBI regulations etc. Â
Managing Director
Managing Partner
Managing Partner
Managing Partner
Samir Lodha founded QuantArt in 2012 January which has been running for the last 10 years. He is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta (IIMC) and has around 20 years of experience in Forex and Interest rate risk management. Prior to that, he had worked in senior positions with foreign exchange treasuries of JP Morgan (Executive Director), HSBC (Associate Director), and ICICI Bank wherein he advised large companies across India on risk management and hedging of foreign exchange and interest rates exposures. He has significant experience in Fx and rate markets along with a sound experience and understanding of global markets, market economics, hedging strategies, hedge algorithms, price calculation, and risk-return optimization.
Srinivas Puni is an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore (IIMB) with over 15 years of experience in structuring forex and interest rates derivatives. He has worked with banks like JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, Yes Bank, and Axis Bank in the past. He conducts training on foreign exchange and risk management as well as advises specifically large clients. Srinivas has an in-depth understanding of the quantitative models behind derivative valuation and related CVA, DVA, FVA modeling. He specifically handles pricing, valuations, structuring, risk modeling etc
Vinod is an MBA from IIM Lucknow with 20+ years of experience in treasuries in India and Hong Kong wherein he advised large companies and banks on risk management, markets, and hedging. Prior to joining QuantArt, he held the positions of Executive Director in Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas. Vinod has extensive skills in simplifying complex situations and convert the same into a hedge opportunity.
Sandip is a post graduate from BITS Pilani with 25+ years of experience in global markets. He began his banking career with SBI and thereafter held leadership position at treasury at American Express Bank, Deutsche Bank and ICICI Bank in India. He was an investment banker for 7 years covering areas including PE intermediation, debt syndication and FX advisory. Sandip was Chief Treasury for Tata Steel Group between 2014-2020, where he led a large team with distinction in hedging currency, interest rates and commodity, investment of surplus funds, retirals investment, working capital management,RBI regulations etc. Â
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