Can India be the next currency manipulator?
Uploaded on: 01 February 2021
According to the December 2020 report by the US Department of Treasury, the following criteria is used to determine countries to be added to the currency manipulator watchlist:
- a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States -$20billion threshold
- a material current account surplus -2% of GDP threshold
- engaged in persistent one-sided intervention in the foreign exchange market -net purchases of forex at 2% of GDP threshold
India’s position with respect to these criteria is as follows:
|Criterion||Limit||Vietnam||Next Report-Likely numerrs|
|Bilateral Trade Surplus||$20 billion||$22 billion||USD 22 Billion|
|Current Account Surplus||2% of GDP||0.4%||Possible|
|Net Purchases of Forex||2% of GDP||2.4%||High|
Although the US treasury Dept has commended transparency efforts made by the Indian government, India has still been added to the monitoring list of currency manipulators which also includes Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, and Thailand. The grounds for adding all these countries to the monitoring list is meeting any two criteria mentioned above.
RBI made net purchases of dollars in 10 of 12 months preceding the report which compiled data till June 2020. Since the report, new Q3 numbers show that the Current Account Surplus shrank from $19.2 billion to $15.5 billion. The report also encouraged government intervention during periods of extreme volatility only. Increasing foreign investment in sovereign and sub- sovereign bonds for long term growth is also suggested in the report.
Vietnam and Switzerland breached all three criteria and have therefore been termed as active currency manipulators which is one step up from being on the monitoring list.
The report does not specifically say what kind of sanctions will be levied on countries flagged as currency manipulators. Recommendations to improve the situation are generally made by the US treasury to the countries flagged. Historically speaking, significant actions have not been taken against currency manipulators. However, looking at the weakness in the Dollar, the US Treasury’s stance towards currency manipulators is expected to change.
If corrective action is not taken, the US can block access to government contracts and development finance. Vietnam may also be hit with tariffs according to some reports. This may seem vague, but we must remember that the US wields massive influence over the world economy and trade as a superpower.
The US Treasury Department’s report is semi-annual and the next report is due in May 2021. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the US government stance when the report was published in December 2020. More recently, in a press conference on Shaktikanta Das, the RBI governor expressed that it is important for nations to build up forex reserves to tide over external shocks, in spite of being added to the monitoring list. This seemed like a retaliatory response to the December report which added India to the monitoring list.
India needs to have capital buffers to ensure the stability of the rupee. A short-term risk for capital markets, when interest rates in developing countries rise back, also looms over the RBI’s head.
In such a volatile scenario, India has built up all-time high reserves worth 584 billion as of January 15th, 2021. This makes India the 5th largest holder and looks to beat Russia to become the 4th largest holder very soon.